UK Resilience Monitor

Module I — Jacobi Tracker · Forecast Dispersion

2026 GDP Consensus Revision Path

HM Treasury independent forecasters — mean & SD envelope, monthly vintages

Jacobi field analysis: Loading revision path…

Vintage Table — GDP Forecast History

Source: HM Treasury independent survey · computed from microdata (n≈24–26 institutions)

Vintage	Horizon	Mean %	SD	n	Δ vs Prior
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Module IV — Sector Curvature · ONS GDP Breakdown

Sector Output MoM %

Services · Production · Construction — monthly divergence

Curvature Variance

Cross-sectional variance of sector MoM readings — higher = more divergent

Latest Sector Reading

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Headline GDP

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Services

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Production

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Construction

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Resilience

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Curvature analysis: Loading…

Module II — Energy Metric Deformation

Deformation Coefficient

Energy price shift vs Feb 2026 pre-war baseline — 1.0 = baseline

Brent Crude

Front month $/bbl — primary available energy signal

Deformation note: Loading…

Geometric Resilience Calculus — Four Horsemen Framework

State Variables — dκ/dt = f₁(κ,τ,θ,λ) + ε₁

Curvature

κ — measured via sector output variance

Degree to which economic flows concentrate into narrow, non-redistributive channels rather than circulating broadly. High curvature = Military Keynesian configuration.

Temporal Stress

τ — measured via Jacobi forecast dispersion

Rate at which decision horizons compress under uncertainty. Expanding SD of GDP forecasts = forecasters losing the ability to project stability forward.

Trust Decay

θ — measured via revision asymmetry index

Erosion of shared expectation between the population and the state. Monotonic downward revision path = forecasting community no longer crediting the official narrative.

Settlement Latency

λ — measured via energy deformation coefficient

Delay between economic action and social consequence. Energy price metric shift changes the distance function on the output manifold — paths that were cheap now cost more to traverse.

GRC Score interpretation: 0–0.25 resilient · 0.25–0.50 stressed · 0.50–0.75 pre-fracture · 0.75–1.0 fracture. Weights are regime-switched: war regime upweights energy deformation (0.40) and complicity (0.30) vs equal-weight normal regime (0.25 each). Calibration: PCA + Granger quarterly recalibration once ≥12 complete observations available.

About This Monitor

The UK Resilience Monitor is a live analytical instrument developed by NUMeRadical Limited applying the Geometric Resilience Calculus framework to the British economy. It operationalises the Four Horsemen diagnostic apparatus — Curvature, Temporal Stress, Trust Decay, and Settlement Latency — as measurable, data-driven components of a composite pre-fracture signal.

The monitor draws on three independent data sources — ONS monthly GDP sector releases, HM Treasury independent forecast survey microdata, and energy forward curves — to produce a composite GRC score updated daily. The score is not a forecast. It is a geometric reading of the UK economy's current structural position on the manifold.

This research is published for public benefit. The analytical framework is developed in NUMeRadical's working papers including Shock Geometry: The Dynamics of British Decline (October 2025), Fiscal Threshold Freeze (December 2025), and Dammum Pro Dammo (April 2026).